Political Science Instructors Predict Presidential Nominees, Winners

Michael Ford

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Photo by: Campaign Photos

(From left to right) Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton.

With the 2016 presidential election just under a year away, and with some states holding primaries as early as January, races for each respective party’s nomination are heating up.

Mark Trezza, chairperson for Fresno City College’s Department of Political Science and History, and political science instructor at FCC James Joseph, offered their expert opinions on how the races will turn out from both parties.

In the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former governor of Maryland Martin O’Malley. The latest national polls by Real Clear Politics show Clinton leading with 58.5 percent of the poll averages followed by Sanders with 30.5 percent and O’Malley, who is way behind at 3.8 percent.

Despite Clinton’s big lead in the national polls, Sanders, who was once considered a longshot candidate, has his campaign moving in a positive direction and has even polled ahead of Clinton in several key primary states, including New Hampshire and Iowa, in the last few months.

One possible reason for the recent surge by Sanders is because of the attention called to Clinton’s ties to Wall Street, especially in a climate where campaign finance reform is a big topic of discussion. CNN reports that she has received over $17 million in campaign contributions and $3 million for speeches from financial services firms and banks.

Trezza said that this is one issue that she can possibly look weak on and that Sanders will look to exploit. “She can be vulnerable on that issue. Especially in the Democratic primary season, less so maybe in the general election,” he said.

“Candidate Sanders would like that to be the number one issue. That’s a point of distinction as far as where they stand. His campaign has to believe that that’s their best issue,” Trezza added.

Joseph is skeptical that Clinton’s supposed ties to Wall Street, will really cost her in the end, and accuses the media of refusing to hold her accountable because of her party affiliation.

“She’s a Democrat. They routinely get a pass in the media on such issues, and so will she when it comes to wealth,” Joseph said. “Her supporters will rally behind her regardless of her wealth, and she does have a chunk of personal money.”

Joseph added that the media should ask how she could claim poverty after lucrative book deals for her and Bill Clinton, former president.

“But if you support her positions, it won’t be an obstacle; someone like James Carville will spin her money as evidence of her “success” in America,” he added.

Should Sanders come away with the Democratic nomination, he will undoubtedly have his own obstacles to overcome, just as Clinton does. Trezza said that Sanders’ far left political views would be a point of emphasis that the Republican nominees will use against him in the general election.

“The Republicans won’t even call him a Democratic candidate, they’re probably just calling him the socialist candidate for president,” Trezza said. “The Republican Party will definitely use it as a negative.”

Joseph agrees that Sanders is too far from the center to be a serious candidate for his party’s nomination.

“Primary voters tend to be very strategic in thinking, meaning they will back the candidate that is most likely to beat the other party’s nominee,” Joseph said. When those dedicated few who actually vote in early states do finally vote, I’m betting Sanders will not win any state races. He’s just not electable with his positions so far to the left.”

As far as O’Malley, Trezza said that this election cycle has increased his national recognition, but he isn’t a real serious candidate to actually capture the Democratic nomination.

“His chances of winning are not that good. I think that most people are going to figure out, if they haven’t already figured out, that they’re going to vote for Clinton or Sanders,” he said. “Those who haven’t, they’ll take a look at O’Malley, they listen to him. I think he could be a serious candidate long-term.”

The Republican Party’s race has been much more muddled than the democrats’, but that may be changing as candidate Donald Trump has built up a solid lead in the latest polls by CNN, holding 36 percent of the poll of Republican and Republican-leaning independents.

In one of the latest polls, the closest Republican candidate is Sen. Ted Cruz with 16 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 14 percent, Marco Rubio, Sen. from Florida follows with 12 percent of the vote.

Regardless of the polls, Trezza said he is unsure if Trump is really fit to be president, as he has never been a politician.

“He’s never been in elected office. Hopefully he would grow into the office and learn the different ways and decorum,” Trezza said. “Ultimately, the people decide whether he’s fit to be president. If he is elected, how is he going to act when Congress doesn’t have to do what he says because they are not beholden to him.”

He said that Trump seems to be combative and uses inflammatory language that borders on demagoguery.

“When you are working with people who have egos as big as your own, that’s not always the best way to act,” Trezza said. “Carson also faces the same skepticism from voters and media about his ability to be president.”

Trezza said he is against electing a candidate with no prior political experience.

“We have one president of the U.S. and there is a point of view that people believe that having no experience in an elected office is actually going to help you perform in that elected office,” he said. “ I personally don’t like that.”

So who do Trezza and Joseph think will win the nominations and the presidency?

Trezza has Clinton winning the Democratic nomination and Trump winning the Republican nomination. “I think at the end of the day, just as it was for Obama both times, it will be an easy democratic win,” he said.

Joseph disagrees. “Trump’s moment in the sun dissipates by late January as voters start to pay close attention to the race,” Joseph said. “Clinton will get the Democratic nomination and pick Senator Elizabeth Warren of MA for VP.”

“Marco Rubio will get the Republican nomination and pick Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina as VP. Rubio/Scott will win handily.”